- The US dollar is down 5-10% so far in 2017 versus AUD NZD CAD GBP EUR and JPY. Expect the USD bearish trend to continue.
- Week to weak the USD seems to be up one week and down the next; but when view on a month to month or quarter to quarter basis, the USD bearish trend is clear and consistent.
- The fundamentals are confusing, erratic and not helpful. Expect that to continue as well. I choose to ignore the fundamentals except…the news releases.
- The Tier 1 news releases (employment, CPI, retail, sales, GDP, monetary policy statement, and Central bank press conferences) are giving strong directional price moves; ignore the news itself and go with the direction of the price action right after the news is released.
- Technically, there is good follow through (20-30 pips minimum) each time the USD makes a new 2017 low for the year in any of the major pairs (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD or USDJPY).
- There is a lot of sideways price action intra-day; making buying support and selling resistance a solid strategy
Good luck and happy trading